WTXS33 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 120.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 120.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.1S 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.1S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.4S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 120.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE COASTLINE OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA WITH STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED
BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN APRF DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 120111Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING A
REGION OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN EDGE. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM MANDORA ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS ENE AT 30 KTS AND A SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OF 980MB FURTHER SUPPORTING BOTH THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH
WARM SSTS AND A POINT SOURCE OVER TC 05S. A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STEER TC 05S ON A TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AND TC 05S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
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