1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 24.9S 165.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 165.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 25.9S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 27.5S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.5S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 32.4S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 39.3S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 43.3S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 165.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
A 170453Z 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH STILL SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND A CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS
IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS) FROM PHFO AND PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WHICH IS STILL OFFSET BY A
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THE TIME BEING, BETWEEN 26 AND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
09P IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL ROUND
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BY TAU 36,
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. TC 09P WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN NEW ZEALAND NEAR TAU 84 AND COMPLETE EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
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