1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 107.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.4S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.5S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.1S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.7S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.5S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 33.1S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 107.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM WITH DEEP BANDING
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 12 NM EYE FEATURE THAT HAS COOLED
SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
140 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T7.0 (140 KNOTS), HOWEVER
RECENT DVORAK DATA-T ANALYSES HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE SUGGESTING
THAT TC 15S HAS BEGUN ITS WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT FEEDING INTO BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED TO THE NORTHEAST IS CREATING SOME
CONVERGENCE AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON THIS SIDE. SSTS IN THE REGION
ARE ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE NEAR 30 CELSIUS, HOWEVER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. TC 15S IS NOW TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS INTO
COOLER WATERS. INITIALLY SSTS DECREASE ONLY MARGINALLY, HOWEVER
BEYOND TAU 36 THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DECREASES RAPIDLY INTO
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. NEAR TAU 48 TC 15S WILL APPROACH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY
INCREASING. DUE TO THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 15S
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 48. TC 15S WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER SOMETIME BEFORE TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT
GROUPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 52
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
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