1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 178.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.2S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.4S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.6S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.8S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
375 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 28.4S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 178.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 18P HAS BEEN SHEARED TO
THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 020600Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40
KNOTS) WHICH CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE LLCC FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.
TC 18P ALSO HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, TC 18P WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 18P
TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS TC 18P
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48
AND BECOME COMPLETELY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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