1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 148.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 148.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.2S 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.7S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.0S 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.3S 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.5S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.4S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.0S 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 148.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES
TO IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE WILLIS
ISLAND RADAR LOOP WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU
36. TC 17P IS EXPERIENCING WEAK STEERING FLOW BUT IS GENERALLY
TRACKING AROUND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 17P WILL TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01817_5day.gif