1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 175.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 175.5W
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.8S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.2S 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.8S 167.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.2S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.3S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.7S 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.9S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 174.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM WEST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
ALONG WITH THE UNDERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY ALONG WITH A
BULLSEYE 082124Z METOP-A ASCAT AMBIGUITIES IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE CORRESPONDING METOP-
A ASCAT WIND BARBS IMAGE WHICH REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ARE MUCH WEAKER
(PREDOMINANTLY 10 TO 20 KTS). THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE TO
THE NORTH OF TC 09P IS CAUSING THIS ASYMMETRY IN THE LLC AND AIDING
IN SPIN UP. AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
T1.5 TO T2.5 (25 TO 35 KNOTS) AND ARE SLIGHTLY BEHIND ACTUAL
INTENSITY AS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 09P IS IN A FAVORABLE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE
LOCATED JUST TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ALSO STRONG DIFFLUENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OBSERVED OVER THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 CELSIUS) AS WELL. TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND THEN DEFLECT TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU
48, TC 09P WILL CONTINUE ITS RECURVE TO THE WEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BY 30 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY UNTIL TAU 24 AS IT
ENCOUNTERS CONVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. AFTER
TAU 48, GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS 09P TRACKS BACK
UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. DUE TO THE OBVIOUS
STEERING FEATURES, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
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