1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 174.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 174.5W
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.2S 171.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.3S 169.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.5S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.0S 169.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.8S 173.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.5S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.0S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 173.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF AVATA SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MASS OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 090318Z
91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF TC 09P. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON A 082125Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (30 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 09P IS BEING STEERED
SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. TC 09P
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 70
KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TURN SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36
TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD WITH AN
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
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