1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 170.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 170.0W
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.4S 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.5S 168.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.5S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.7S 173.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.0S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 24.0S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 169.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANUA ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY LOCATED TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MUTLI-
SPECTRAL LOOP AND A 092104Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED BUT WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS
IS ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE THAT HAS AN EXPANSIVE 45 KNOT WIND FIELD
WILL SOME 50 KNOT WIND BARBS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG
OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. TC 09P IS TRACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST, AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. TC 09P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AT WHICH TIME THE STR
TO THE SOUTH TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND THE
SYSTEM RECURVES TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO TRACK DUE WEST THROUGH TAU 72 WHEN IT CROSSES THE RIDGE AXIS AND
TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS
AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AROUND TAU
120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVEHEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z,
102100Z AND 110300Z.
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