1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 20.9S 168.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 168.9W
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.4S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.4S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.1S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.8S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.4S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.1S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.1S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 169.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A CENTRAL DIMPLE FEATURE, PRECURSOR TO A FORMATIVE EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
DIMPLE AND A NASCENT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 110250Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND 110251Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS IN CONCURRENCE WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND A 110000Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 88 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND IS SUPPORTED BY WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, THOUGH THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION HAS BECOME MORE
GRADUAL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER VWS IN THE AREA. TC 09P IS CURRENTLY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO
THE NORTH EAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH IS BUILDING,
AND HAS ALREADY CAUSED 09P TO TURN WESTWARD. TC 09P WILL TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE STR BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 90, AS THE STR ERODES TO THE EAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE STARTING A
WEAKENING TREND AS VWS INCREASES AND TC 09P BEGINS TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD TOWARDS LOWER SSTS IN LATER TAUS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.
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