1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 171.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 171.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.5S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.2S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.0S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.0S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.6S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.0S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.4S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 172.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL PERSISTENT EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS OCCLUDING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN 111801Z 91GHZ SSMIS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED 15NM WIDE
MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T6.5 (90-115
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS MODERATE OUTFLOW PREDOMINANTLY ON THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE. TC GITA IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT IS LIMITING
INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTH. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNTIL AFTER
TAU 48 AT WHICH TIME IT WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 105
KNOTS AROUND TAU 24 BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO
INCREASING VWS. TC 09P BEGINS TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS LOWER
SSTS IN LATER TAUS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT UNTIL LATER TAUS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO VARY IN THE
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE VARIATIONS IN
THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
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