1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 172.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 172.6W
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.5S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.1S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.3S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.2S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.8S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.2S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 173.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MUTLI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN 112023Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE AMSU IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED 25NM WIDE MICROWAVE EYE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND
PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15-25 KNOT)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC GITA IS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE WEST THAT HAS BEEN LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 36 AT WHICH POINT IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 24, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24 THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. INITIALLY, THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE DUE
TO INCREASING VWS, AND IN THE LATER TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK
INTO COOLER (<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODELS BEGIN TO VARY IN THE
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRICIPLE OUTLIERS,
NAVGEM AND COAMPS, TURN SHARPER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. DESPITE THE
VARIATIONS IN THE LATER TAUS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
THE MUTLI-MODEL CONSENSUSIS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
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