1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 175.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 175.5W
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.1S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.1S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.3S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.6S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.6S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.5S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 26.6S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 176.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 346 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. A
120948Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A 10 NM WIDE MICROWAVE EYE AND THE
MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR EYE
AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED 120948Z 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS IN CONCURRENCE WITH
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND PGTW AND ABOVE A 120638Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 114 KTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND TC
GITA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST THAT HAS BEEN LIMITING
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND STRONGER EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS, IN ADDITION TO WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IS CURRENTLY OFFSETTING THE
NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF VWS AND SUBSIDENCE. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST
THROUGH TAU 36 AFTER WHICH IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS
PLATEAUED AT 125 KTS, AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND.
INITIALLY, THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND IN
THE LATER TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK INTO COOLER (<26 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED
IN THEIR FORECAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, WHICH CURVES SOONER AND MORE TIGHTLY THAN THE OTHERS.
DESPITE THE VARIATIONS IN THE LATER TAUS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
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