1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 21.2S 178.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 178.4W
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.0S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.1S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.4S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.8S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.1S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.4S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 28.5S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 178.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL (LESS THAN 10 NM DIAMETER) RAGGED EYE
SURROUNDED BY A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL THAT HAS MAINTAINED
CONSISTENT STRUCTURE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
CONFIRMING A SMALL CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE. A 122059Z METOP-B MHS
89 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SUPPORTS THIS POSITION AND SHOWS A
DEFINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH SOME EROSION ON THE EASTERN SIDE
AND A BROADER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SLIGHT
WEAKENING IN OBSERVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IN CONCURRENCE WITH MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 AND T6.5
(115 TO 127 KNOTS) AS WELL AS A 122058Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 116
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 24
AFTER WHICH IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS PLATEAUED, AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IN THE LATER TAUS, THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK INTO COOLER (LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND SPIN DOWN MORE QUICKLY. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE IN THEIR FORECAST OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN.
DESPITE SOME VARIATION IN THE LATER TAUS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
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