1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 177.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 177.7E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.3S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.7S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.2S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.9S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.1S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 28.2S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 33.1S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 177.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A
HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A 25NM EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EVIDENT EYE FEATURE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS
WHICH IS ON THE LOWER END OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 TO T6.5 (115 TO 127 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY SUPPORTIVE WITH A POINT
SOURCE LOCATED OVER THE CENTER FEEDING POLEWARD INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS. TC
09S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WILL
PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, STEERING TC 09S WEST
INITIALLY, THEN GRADUALLY SOUTHWEST BY TAU 48, AND EVENTUALLY DUE
SOUTH ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 120. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE NEAR TERM SUPPORTING ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24
SSTS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF APPROACHING 26 CELSIUS BY TAU 72, AND THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO APPROXIMATELY 85KTS. BEYOND TAU 72
SSTS DECLINE MUCH MORE RAPIDLY AND THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO
DROP CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ESPECIALLY TIGHT GROUPING IN
THE EARLY TAUS AND ONLY MARGINAL SEPARATION IN THE LATER TAUS.
OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
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