1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 175.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 175.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.9S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.4S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.4S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.6S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 27.6S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.6S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 36.5S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 174.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED 30 NM EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP AND A 141626Z
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE
MICROWAVE EYE WITH SLIGHTLY MORE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
LOWER END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 (102 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND NFFN TO T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF
WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW.
TC 09P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT
CONTINUES TO ROUND THE RIDGE. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VWS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT-OF-PHASE WITH STORM MOTION.
CONCURRENTLY WITH INCREASING VWS, ALONG-TRACK SSTS WILL COOL AS THE
CYCLONE TRACKS POLEWARD OF 25S. DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, TC GITA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS
IT APPROACHES NEW ZEALAND. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND
152100Z.
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