1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 174.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 174.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.0S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.7S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.7S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.0S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 28.2S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 33.0S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 39.1S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 173.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED 60 NM EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP
AND A 142200Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A LARGELY SYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER
EXTENT OF THE 34 KNOT WIND FIELD IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND NFFN
TO T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (27-28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED
ON THE POLEWARD SIDE BY MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 09S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT CONTINUES TO
ROUND THE RIDGE. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NEW ZEALAND FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VWS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WHILE ALONG-TRACK SSTS WILL COOL AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS POLEWARD OF 25S. AS THE ENVIRONMENT SHIFTS TO UNFAVORABLE,
TC GITA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 120. AROUND TAU 72,
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
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