1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 22.6S 171.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 171.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.4S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.5S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 25.8S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 27.3S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.5S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 20 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 37.7S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 43.2S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 170.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED 40 NM EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EYE IN THE ANIMATED LOOP THAT ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 151850Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON MUTLI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T6.0 (90-115
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A POINT
SOURCE ALOFT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN THE POLEWARD SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 09P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GRADUALLY SOUTH, THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CROSSES THE RIDGE
AXIS AROUND TAU 72. STEADILY INCREASING VWS, THE RESULT OF UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOMING OUT OF PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION, WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SSTS WILL
BECOME UNFAVORABLE (<26 CELSIUS) AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS POLEWARD OF
25S. THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST, REDUCING THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120. TC GITA
WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AS IT ENTERS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE GALE
FORCE WIND FIELD BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND
162100Z.
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