1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 170.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 170.0E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.7S 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.7S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 26.0S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 27.4S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 32.0S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 38.1S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 24 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 43.0S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 169.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH A WELL-
DEFINED 35 NM EYE FEATURE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW EXTENDING INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE ANIMATED LOOP AND A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN A 152221Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90-102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A
POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC GITA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TRACK DIRECTION GRADUALLY
SOUTH THOUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE RIDGE
AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES AND
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION AND SSTS
BECOME UNFAVORABLE (<26 CELSIUS) AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS POLEWARD OF
25 SOUTH. AROUND TAU 72, TC GITA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY TAU
120, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE GALE
FORCE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
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