1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 23.5S 168.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 168.0E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.5S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 25.7S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 27.2S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 29.2S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 34.8S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 41.0S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 167.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A DECAYING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 161050Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS BECOMING DISPLACED FROM THE CONVECTION DUE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF
T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND BETWEEN DVORAK CI ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90
KNOTS) AND T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PHFO AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30
KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORABLE (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS).
TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT ROUNDS THE STR.
TC 09P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 THEN SOUTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 09P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN NEW ZEALAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
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