1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 24.5S 166.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 166.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 25.5S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 26.8S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 28.5S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 14 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 31.2S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 37.9S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 42.9S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 166.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAK BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEPER CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE
SOUTH. A 162201Z METOP-B MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A NARROW
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND AN INTACT
LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS) AND A 161929Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TO
FAVORABLE WITH SUFFICIENT DIVERGENCE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE WIND SHEAR WHICH
IS DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. SSTS HAVE STEADILY BEEN
DECREASING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND ARE NOW NEAR 25 CELSIUS.
TC 09W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER AND
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS INFLUENCING THE
CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND WILL SHIFT TC 09S TO A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE
AXIS. SOMETIME AROUND TAU 72 TC 09S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND BEGIN ITS
TRANSITION INTO A COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 09S IS
EXPECTED TO FULLY COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72
BUT STARTS TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS. OVERALL
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z,
171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
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