1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 25.5S 164.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 164.7E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 26.6S 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 28.4S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 30.9S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 33.8S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 40.5S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 44.1S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 164.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 09P. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING CONVECTION THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN STRONG. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 171126Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
STRONG AND SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS
HEDGED ABOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A LARGE SWATH
OF 50 KNOT WINDS WITH 60 KNOT WINDS LIKELY EMBEDDED BUT NOT DISPLAYED
IN THE ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WHICH IS STILL OFFSET BY A ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THE TIME BEING, BETWEEN 26 AND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 09P IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL ROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BY TAU 30, WITH AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT
ACCELERATES AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. TC 09P
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NEW ZEALAND NEAR TAU 84 AND COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
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