1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 26.0S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 164.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 27.4S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.5S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 32.2S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 20 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 35.4S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 41.4S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 163.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A
SMALL AREA OF REMAINING CENTRAL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 171610Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE REMNANTS OF A LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT
IS NO LONGER INTACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 91 GHZ
IMAGE FROM THIS SSMIS PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OBSERVED IN
THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND SUPPORTED BY A 171438Z SATCON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WHICH IS STILL OFFSET
BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
AT ABOUT 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW THIS
THRESHOLD AS TC 09P TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL ROUND
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BY TAU 24,
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
AS IT ACCELERATES AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. AS
TC 09P TRANSITIONS, ITS WIND FIELD WILL BROADEN AND SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHEN ALLOWING INTENSITY TO REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS DESPITE HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE SSTS. TC 09P WILL BE COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL JUST OFF
THE COAST OF NEW ZEALAND AT TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
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