1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 109.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.1S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.7S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.8S 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.4S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.8S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.4S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 108.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME MORE COMPACT AND CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY OUTLINED 20-NM EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURES IN THE MSI AND IN THE 211153Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.5 TO
T7.0. THE SYSTEM IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS,
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS. TC 15S IS
BEGINNING TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING STR. AFTER
PEAKING AT 140 KNOTS NEAR TAU 12, IT WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE SOUTHWARD
AND GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS. AFTER TAU 48, TC MARCUS WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
PERTH BUT WILL DISSIPATE OFFSHORE BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 50
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
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