1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 113.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.8S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.6S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.9S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.9S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.2S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.2S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 28.0S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 113.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A MATURE SYSTEM WITH A PINHOLE EYE (9 NM IN
DIAMETER) THAT HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN PERIODS OF CLOUD-FILLING AND
CLEARING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THIS EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES IN AGREEMENT AT T6.0 (115 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
SSTS (29 TO 30 CELSIUS), AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), WHICH
ALL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA. FROM
TAU 24 TO TAU 48, INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS TC 15S DEFLECTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS AND DECREASED OHC.
AFTER TAU 48, TC 15S WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS
AND TRACKS POLEWARD INTO STEADILY DECREASING SSTS AND UNFAVORABLE
VWS. THESE UNFAVORABLE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER
BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING STRONG EVIDENCE OF
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO AND REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) FOR FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).
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