1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 16.7S 171.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 171.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.6S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.1S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.7S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 30 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.3S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 36 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 39.0S 167.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 172.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 082201Z METOP-B 89GHZ
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
LLCC. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
RECENT TRACK MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A DISTINCT POLEWARD CHANNEL ENHANCED BY THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC 19P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 19P WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT PASSES JUST
SOUTH OF FIJI BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 WITH LAND INTERACTION
SLIGHTLY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND
WARM SST, TC 19P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY
TAU 24, HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND TRACKS NEAR THE JET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z,
092100Z AND 100300Z.
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