1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 173.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 173.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.0S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.5S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.5S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 34 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.2S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 174.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM WEST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LLC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A
NEWLY-FORMED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 091106Z GPM PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL
OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT 30C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. TC KENI IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR
TERM AND FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE
CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, TC 19P WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING
WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
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