1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 18.7S 177.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 177.0E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.5S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 27 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.5S 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 36 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.7S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 45 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 40.4S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
315 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 178.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION
CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A FORMING DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP AND A 092140Z METOP-B 89GHZ
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BETWEEN
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO
T4.5 (65-77 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH LESS ORGANIZED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 19P IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC KENI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NER
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP
TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE AND VWS WILL INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEEPENING UPSTREAM. THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. AROUND TAU 24 TC 19P WILL
ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), COMPLETING ETT BY TAU
48. THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS IN PHASE WITH THE STORM
MOTION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS
RESULTING IN AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE
WIND FIELD. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
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