1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 27.7S 172.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 172.8W
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 35.0S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 172.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WEAKENING AND ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION AS TC 19P BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN 110551Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC
19P IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOTS).
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE, NEAR 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 19P WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT
COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 27 FEET.
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