1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 174.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 174.5W
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 31.4S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 41 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 39.4S 168.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 173.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 461 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD
SIDE. A 102121Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI, SUPPORTED BY
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS), HEDGED HIGHER
DUE TO A 102119Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 88 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT VWS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 35 KNOTS)
AS TC 19P BECOMES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NOW MARGINAL (25C) AND WILL STEADILY
DROP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS TC 19P RAPIDLY ACCELERATES
SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
RAPID SPIN DOWN. TC 19P IS EXHIBITING CHARACTERISTICS OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT AS A
COLD CORE SYSTEM WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS BY TAU 24. DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS
27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
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