1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 29.2S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2S 161.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 32.0S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 35.6S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 39.5S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 42.2S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 29.9S 162.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST OF
KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING FURTHER FROM THE PUFF OF REMAINING
CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON ANIMATED EIR AND SUPPORTED BY AN 181559Z 85GHZ SSMI
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE CONFIRMING A LARGE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND SUPPORTED
BY A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AS
WELL AS AN 181421Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) WHICH REMAINS
OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, BELOW 25
DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH RECENT PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 09P IS
STILL A TROPICAL WARM CORE SYSTEM, IT IS STARTING TO DISPLAY
SUBTROPICAL FEATURES SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD SIDE. TC 09P IS TRACKING
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
BY TAU 12 AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 09P WILL
MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24 AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
48 OVER NEW ZEALAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
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