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Gita - South Pacific

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  #26  
Old 18th February 2018, 08:19
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 26.7S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 163.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 28.4S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 30.7S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 33.8S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 37.3S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 42.3S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 163.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A SMALL REMAINING AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. A 172238Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF 50 KNOT BARBS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE 60 NM AWAY FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI SUPPORTED BY THE 172238Z
ASCAT AMBIGUITIES IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED
ON STEADY STATE CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY A 172021Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 54 KNOTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE HEDGED HIGHER THAN
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FRON T2.0 TO 3.0 (30 TO 45
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WHICH IS STILL OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW THIS THRESHOLD AS TC 09P
TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BY TAU 18 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES AND
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. AS TC 09P TRANSITIONS,
ITS WIND FIELD WILL BROADEN AND SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN ALLOWING
INTENSITY TO REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS DESPITE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE SSTS. TC
09P WILL BE COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL OVER NEW ZEALAND AT TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z,
181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.







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  #27  
Old 18th February 2018, 22:42
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 29.2S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2S 161.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 32.0S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 35.6S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 39.5S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 42.2S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 29.9S 162.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST OF
KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING FURTHER FROM THE PUFF OF REMAINING
CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON ANIMATED EIR AND SUPPORTED BY AN 181559Z 85GHZ SSMI
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE CONFIRMING A LARGE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND SUPPORTED
BY A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AS
WELL AS AN 181421Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) WHICH REMAINS
OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, BELOW 25
DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH RECENT PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 09P IS
STILL A TROPICAL WARM CORE SYSTEM, IT IS STARTING TO DISPLAY
SUBTROPICAL FEATURES SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD SIDE. TC 09P IS TRACKING
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
BY TAU 12 AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 09P WILL
MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24 AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
48 OVER NEW ZEALAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.








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  #28  
Old 19th February 2018, 08:30
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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 32.6S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.6S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 36.2S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 40.5S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 43.9S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 33.5S 163.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 190550Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED LLCC AND DECAYING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN 182303Z PARTIAL METOP-
A ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ASCAT PASS, 50 KNOT WINDS ARE
STILL LIKELY IN A TIGHT RADIUS AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOTS)
WHICH REMAINS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT,
BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 12 TC 09P WILL TRACK MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P WILL MAINTAIN AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
12 AND DECREASE TO 45 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.







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  #29  
Old 19th February 2018, 19:47
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. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 34.0S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0S 164.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 38.1S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 41.8S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 35.0S 165.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
A 191125Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING THE LLCC WHICH IS STARTING TO
BECOME ELONGATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
SAME ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS THAT 50 KNOT WINDS CONTINUE IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE STORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (50 TO 60 KNOTS) WHICH REMAINS
OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, BELOW 25
DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 09P WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS
IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND DECREASE TO 45
KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z AND
200900Z.








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  #30  
Old 20th February 2018, 09:12
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Final Warning

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 35.5S 167.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.5S 167.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 39.6S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 43.3S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 36.5S 168.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM
NORTHWEST OF WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A RAGGED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE
SOUTH DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GITA IS
NOW ASSESSED AS FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL. DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE ASYMMETRIC LLCC STRUCTURE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DESPITE THE VWS AND LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE JET HAS HELPED MAINTAIN THE STRONG CORE WINDS DURING THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55
KNOTS BASED ON THE LARGE SWATH OF 50-55 KNOT WINDS IN A 191125Z
ASCAT PASS. TC 09P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST, WITH A VERY GRADUAL DISSIPATION TREND. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET.









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