WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 10.4N 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 118.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.8N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.1N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 118.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T1.0 FROM PGTW. TD 32W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO A WIDESPREAD GALE-FORCE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE CAUSING INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH
WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z
IS 7 FEET.
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