WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 28.2S 47.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 47.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.0S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 47.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TWO
CYCLONIC MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND ONE ANOTHER, AND MINIMAL
REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TWO CIRCULATIONS
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090322Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE ALSO SHOWING AN AMBIGUOUS LLCC WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION
PRIMARILY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND ALL OTHER DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE BOTH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KTS), BUT BELOW A 090413Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KTS. A 090554Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN
EXPANSIVE 25 KT WIND FIELD, WITH SEVERAL 30 KT WIND BARBS ABOUT 160
NM FROM THE CENTER POSITION, AT THE INBOARD EDGE OF THE PASS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
VALUES ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLY COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS POLEWARD. TC 03S HAS TRACKED TO THE SOUTH, AND COMPLETED A
SMALL LOOP OVER ITS TRACK IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. DUE TO THE
DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 03S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE
BY TAU 12. BEYOND TAU 12, A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND THE REMNANTS OF TC 03S WILL INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED WINDS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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