WTXS33 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 121.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 121.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.1S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.5S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.2S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.3S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 121.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WEST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE
SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM ABOM PROVIDES A GOOD
DEPICTION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND LOCATED
JUST OFFSHORE APPROXIMATELY 40NM WEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA AND IS
THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOW A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE EXTREMELY WARM, ABOVE 30
CELSIUS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CONTINENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 05S ON A TRACK SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WHILE TC 05S IS TRACKING OVER OPEN WATER,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND TC 05S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS. AROUND TAU 18 TC 05S WILL MAKE
LANDFALL EAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER LAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT BUT THERE
STILL EXISTS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WHEN AND WHERE TC 05S WILL
MAKE LANDFALL WITH APPROXIMATELY 110NM SPREAD ALONG THE COASTLINE
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. NAVGEM, ECMWF, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE THE WESTERN MOST OUTLIERS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01805_5day.gif