1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 84.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.0S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.2S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.1S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.5S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.8S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.8S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.8S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 84.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 754 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE POSITION HAS BEEN
RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION
BASED ON A REASSESSMENT OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
HOWEVER, THIS RELOCATION HAS NOT RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07S HAS
TURNED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. AS THIS PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TC 07S WILL TRACK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WESTWARD DIRECTION. BY TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE,
RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH NAVGEM AND THE UKMET MODEL DEPICT
TC 07S BASICALLY CONTINUING POLEWARD, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH NEVER BECOMING FULLY ESTABLISHED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM. ALL OTHER CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TURN
FOLLOWED BY NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
ALTHOUGH OFFSET SLIGHTLY FROM THE LOWER PROBABILITY NAVGEM AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.
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