1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 161.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.7S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.7S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.3S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 15 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 28.3S 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 20 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 36.0S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 162.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 08S IS BEING INCREASINGLY
SHEARED, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, ON A LLCC AND LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER IN A 281044Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (40-
KNOT PLUS) VWS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED WEAK
CONVECTION, ISOLATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC
08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST. IT
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
ACCELERATES POLEWARD AND BECOMES EMBDEDDED IN AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
CONCURRENTLY, TC 08S WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT GETS ABSORBED IN
THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WIND FIELD, AND THE WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND,
WITH STRONGER WINDS DISPLACED FURTHER FROM THE CENTER, INTO A COLD
CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TC 08S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT PREDICTING
ACCELERATING POLEWARD MOTION, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
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