. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.0S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.0S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.0S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.3S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.4S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.8S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A 60NM EYE FEATURE WITH SYMMETRICAL RADIAL BANDING CONVERGING INTO
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE CORE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE ABNORMALLY LARGE EYE FEATURE LEFT BEHIND AFTER
COMPLETION OF A RECENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY AT OR AROUND 100 TO 105 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW WITH A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED ALOFT
OVER THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS WITH
MODERATE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TC 07S IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD
UNDER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO BOTH
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING
WESTWARD AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A RESULTANT
WESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 07S BEING CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES.
BEYOND TAU 72 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE
SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE WITH THE DOMINANT NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ASSUMING
STEERING AND SHIFTING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON THE PHILOSOPHY. JGSM, EGRR, AND AFUM SHOW THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BECOMING STRONGER EARLIER WITH A RESULTANT TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST HAPPENING SOONER. THE REMAINING MODELS IN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOW A PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.
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