1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 26.4S 163.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 163.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 30.0S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 21 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 34.2S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 163.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HIGHLY SHEARED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE POLEWARD SEMI-CIRLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MULTSPECTRAL IMAGERY
AND SUPPORTED BY A 300526Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALING AN EXPOSED
BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS, BASED ON A 292232Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A COUPLE 40
KNOT WIND BARBS JUST EAST OF THE LLCC FURTHER SUPPORTED BY NEARBY
SHIP OBSERVATIONS. ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES ALIGN WITH
THE ASSESSED INTENSITY AT T2.3 (33 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC FEHI IS TRANSITING THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS AND IS TRACKING OVER
MARGINAL (26 DEGREES C) SST. AN AMSU THERMAL CROSS SECTION FROM
300400Z INDICATES A WARM ANOMALY EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, INDICATIVE OF A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING TO AN ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE, THEN
COLD CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, COMING
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24. TC FEHI WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT
UNDERGOES ETT, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z AND
310300Z.
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