1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 75.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 75.7E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.1S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.8S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.5S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.3S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.3S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.4S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.0S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 75.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH THE PREVIOUS
RAGGED EYE BECOMING VERY CLEAR AND INCREASING IN SIZE TO 55 NM. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 020021Z GPM
36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO INDICATES THE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH AN INTENSE EYEWALL COMPLETELY
SURROUNDING THE CLEAR EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120
KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW, AND A SATELLITE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 113 KNOTS. TC 07S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AS THE SYSTEM
REACHES LOCAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, WHILE TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VWS (5-10 KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SST VALUES
(28 DEG C) AND MODERATE OHC. TC 07S HAS BEGUN ITS POLEWARD TURN AND
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TAU 72, BUT THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AS THE
NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
ROBUST OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. BEYOND TAU 24
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS THE
SYSTEM EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS AND EROSION OF OUTFLOW COMBINED
WITH DECREASING SSTS. TC 07S WILL MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC
CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER. THE
EUROPEAN MODELS AND CTCX REMAIN WESTERN OUTLIERS, WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE FURTHER EAST, WITH HWRF BEING
THE EASTERN OUTLIER, 470NM EAST OF THE ECMWF. THE JTWC TRACK IS
PLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND NEAR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATER PORTION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST
TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
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