1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 78.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.2S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.5S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.0S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.3S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.9S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.3S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 78.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 803 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CORE
CONVECTION WHICH IS BEING DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND
FMEE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND SUPPORTED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF A
031621Z AMSU 89 GHZ PASS WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER, AS
WELL AS A 031544Z OSCAT CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
70 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE FALLING DATA-T
NUMBERS. THE MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE IS 75
KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED OSCAT PASS PROVIDED INPUTS TO UPDATE THE
WIND RADII IN ALL QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CEBILE
IS NEARLY UNDER A POINT SOURCE, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER,
SHIPS ANALYSIS INDICATES VWS VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE EIR DEPICTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ARE NOW A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S IS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS
STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO A
SOUTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A
WESTERN DEFLECTION. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL
DISSIPATION, FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS BASED
ON THE CURRENT TREND AND NOTING THE RAPID DISSIPATION INDICATED BY
SHIPS DUE TO HIGH (30-40 KNOT) VWS AND COLD SSTS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
CEBILE MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO THAT TIME. THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG
THE NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z, AND 042100Z.
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