1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 170.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 170.2W
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.6S 172.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.3S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.2S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.0S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.5S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 25.6S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 170.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM SOUTH
OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
SHOWED A TEMPORARY EYE THAT WAS ONCE AGAIN SUBSUMED INTO DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A WARMER NOTCH FEATURE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
110911Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS IS IN CONCURRENCE WITH THE PGTW 1200 FIX OF T5.0, AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE KNES FIX OF T4.5. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), BUT IS SUPPORTED BY WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER VWS IN THE
AREA HAVE STIFLED DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 09P IS
CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTH, AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY
OF THE STR. TC 09P WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 90, AS THE STR
ERODES TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS AROUND
TAU 48 BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND AS VWS INCREASES AND TC 09P
BEGINS TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS LOWER SSTS IN LATER TAUS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UNTIL LATER
TAUS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NUMERICAL
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE POLEWARD
TURN, OCCURING SOMETIME AFTER TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z,
120900Z, AND 121500Z.
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