1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 172.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 172.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.1S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.1S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.2S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 26.7S 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 30.4S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 36.6S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 43.1S 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 171.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM EAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL
SYSTEM WITH WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS BUT WITH A WELL-DEFINED 40 NM
EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
EYE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 151027Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOW END OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T6.0 TO REFLECT THE SLIGHT WEAKENING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT
ENHANCING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY WARM AT 28
CELSIUS. TC 09S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, TC 09P WILL GRADUALLY
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR. VWS IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE OUT-OF-PHASE WITH STORM MOTION. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SSTS WILL COOL AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD. IN VIEW OF
THESE DYNAMICS, TC GITA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BE REDUCED TO 40
KNOTS BY TAU 120 AFTER IT CROSSES NEW ZEALAND NEAR WELLINGTON.
CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
72 AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BECOMES A GALE-FORCE COLD
CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z,
160900Z AND 161500Z.
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