1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 131.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.3S 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.9S 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.5S 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.9S 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.1S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.1S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.1S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 130.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES
AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM DARWIN SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CIRCULAR CENTER NOW OVERLAND. A
162046Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FORMING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THE EYE FEATURE IS NOT OBSERVABLE IN THE CORRESPONDING 37GHZ BAND OR
IN RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
LOWER END OF PREVIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45
TO 55 KNOTS) AND SUPPORTED BY LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT CREATING A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH NOTABLE DIFFLUENCE. SSTS ARE EXTREMELY WARM
NEAR THE COAST LINE AROUND 31 CELSIUS AND WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30
CELSIUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TC 15S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT WHICH WILL BECOME EAST-WEST
ORIENTED AND SHIFT THE SYSTEM TO A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.
INITIALLY TC 15S WILL TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE INTENSIFICATION TREND DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND THE PRESENCE OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR.
BEYOND TAU 48 TC 15S WILL TRACK OVER OPEN WATER, AND WITH IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY QUICKLY REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSE GROUPING OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST OVER THE FIRST 48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING SO
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE. DESPITE THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT TERM, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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