1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 127.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.7S 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.2S 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.5S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.2S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.6S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.9S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 127.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING MASS OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL LOOP AND ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM
BOTH APRF AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAKER POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HAS BEEN
TRACKING THROUGH WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF. TC 15S IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL SHORTLY MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WILL
BUILD, CAUSING THE TRACK TO SHIFT MORE WESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LIMITED THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND. AFTER
TRACKING BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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