1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.1S 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S 136.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.5S 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.5S 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.9S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.3S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.6S 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7S 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 136.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ADRM,
COUPLED WITH A 220054Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF 30-35
KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (29-30C). TC 16P IS
BEING STEERED BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE STORM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING TO
THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY, SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN
MORE RAPIDLY AS VWS DECREASES. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 85
KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD, WITH
SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAPE OF YORK AND OTHER
MODELS TURNING IT BACK TO THE WEST AFTER COMING ASHORE IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THIS SPREAD IS LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z,
230900Z AND 231500Z.
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