1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 136.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 136.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.9S 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.4S 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.0S 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.4S 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.6S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.4S 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 137.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP BANDING CONVECTION RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER STRUGGLING TO FORM AN EYE. A 222116Z 37 GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON RECENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND ADRM. NEARBY SHIP
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAPE WESSEL INDICATE A SHARP INCREASE
IN SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN
MSLP TO 997 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE DUE TO A POINT SOURCE
ANALYZED JUST ABOVE THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO
EXTREMELY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS WITH NOTABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IN
THE ARAFURA SEA EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 16P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A
WEAK RIDGE IS BUILDING JUST EAST OF TC 16S WILL SHIFT THE TRACK
INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARM WATERS WILL
FAVOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TC 16P IN THE NEAR TERM, REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THEREAFTER, TC 16P WILL BEGIN
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS LAND AND SLOWS DOWN AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF TC 16P AND SHIFT
THE TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TC 16S WILL
MAKE LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 96 AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER THE CONTINENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
IMPROVEMENT, BUT A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE LEVEL
OF INFLUENCE THE EASTWARD RIDGE WILL HAVE IN THE SHORT TERM IS
UNKNOWN. THE MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR A TRACK MORE EASTWARD WHILE THE
GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR A WESTWARD TRACK KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER OPEN
WATER AND UNHINDERED BY LAND A BIT LONGER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS HEDGED TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A MORE
PRONOUNCED EASTERN RIDGE, HOWEVER, DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES THERE
IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z,
231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
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