1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 139.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 139.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.2S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.8S 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.5S 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.2S 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.9S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.7S 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.7S 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 139.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
NORA HAS CEASED ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE, AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY, WITH THE SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN AN EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE INFRARED IMAGERY, AS
WELL AS A 231715 SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTING A WEAK
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE DISPLACED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST FROM WHERE
THE IR WOULD SUGGEST THE LLCC WOULD BE. THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED
BY ANALYSIS OF RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE GOVE, AUSTRALIA RADAR SITE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 95 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 (102
KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM
CIMSS OF T5.0. TC 16P HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW GUINEA. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, INTENSITY
HAS PLATEAUED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, LIKELY DUE TO AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS WELL AS RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC
16P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AROUND TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT
ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND TAU 72, TC 16P WILL
ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE STR BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT PERIOD OF
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 24, PEAKING AT 105
KNOTS, AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND MODERATE SUPPORTING UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 36, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
ACCELERATE THROUGH TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, LAND
INTERACTION AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 16P WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 24, BUT
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. NEARLY ALL MODELS INDICATE
A PERIOD OF SLOW MOVEMENT AROUND TAU 72 FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION
TOWARDS THE WEST, THE UNCERTAINTY BEING IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF
MOTION. HOWEVER, THE AFUM AND EGRR MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN
EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, MOVING THE SYSTEM INTO
THE CORAL SEA BY TAU 72. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
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