1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.9S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.0S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.8S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.4S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.0S 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.8S 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.2S 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH TC NORA WEAKENED
THROUGH THE 0000Z HOUR, WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK, RAGGED EYE FEATURE
EVIDENT IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE MSI, AND RADAR FIX DATA FROM THE
WEIPA RADAR SITE. A 232207Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMED
THAT DEEP CONVECTION WAS LIMITED AT THAT TIME TO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT, WITH THE EYEWALL BEING OPEN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS FOR THIS WARNING,
BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND
AUTOMATED INTENSITY GUIDANCE OF T4.8 (84 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DUE TO AN INCREASING TREND EVIDENT AT THE TIME OF THE FIX. TC
16P CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NEW GUINEA, THOUGH THE TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FLATTER THAN
ORIGINAL FORECAST, WITH A STRONGER EASTWARD COMPONENT THROUGH THE
00Z HOUR. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INTENSITY HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY
BUT IS ON AN INCREASING TREND. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE NER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, TC NORA IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL COL AREA BETWEEN THE NER, A
DEVELOPING STR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THE EQUATORWARD END OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROF TO THE SOUTH, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY IN
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA THROUGH TAU 72. IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC 16P WILL ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE STR
BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. WHILE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED, BY THE 00Z HOUR,
INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING WERE ALREADY BECOMING EVIDENT, AND SO A
SHORT PERIOD OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TAU
12, PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS, AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU
12 AND THROUGH TAU 36 SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 36, AS LAND INTERACTION AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT COMBINE, TC 16P WILL EXPERIENCE MORE RAPID
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTH GULF
OF CARPENTARIA BEFORE TAU 96 AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY
TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN, WITH THREE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS. THE AFUM AND EGRR MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE CORAL SEA,
WHILE THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE TRACKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH, MAKING LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST,
WHICH LIES WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
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