1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 148.7E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.0S 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.5S 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.9S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.2S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.5S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.6S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.5S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 148.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE
REGENERATION OF TC 17P, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 011030). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
(MSI) IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTH. A
012036Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER, AND IN THE TRAILING BAND TO THE NORTH.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI IMAGERY AND
RADAR IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON A 012248Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SWATH OF 35 KT
WIND BARBS OVER 50NM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER, AS WELL AS
OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF STATION RECORDING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
35 KTS FOR 4 HOURS. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE AGREES WITH THE KNES AND
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
CONVECTION DESPITE MODERATE 15-20 KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 17P
MADE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THEN HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY (QS)
IN THE PAST 9 HOURS. WHILE THE REMNANTS OF 17P HAD BEEN SUBTROPICAL
ON 27 MAR, IT RE-ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, GROWING
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WARM CORE, IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
MOVED NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE
OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST SUGGESTS
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KTS AT 36 HOURS. IN THE NEAR
TERM, GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE STORM
MOTION, WITH HWRF AND GFS BEING WESTERN OUTLIERS. ECMWF, NAVGEM, AND
AFUM INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER A POSSIBLE LOOP. IN THE
LONG TERM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRIFURCATED, WITH HWRF AND
GFS MOVING TC 17P CONTINUING WESTWARD TOWARD AUSTRALIA, COAMPS AND
NAVGEM TRACKING TC 17P SOUTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD, AND ECMWF AND
THE UKMET MODELS SHOWING EVENTUAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. AS A RESULT,
MULTIPLE DISSIPATION SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO HIGH SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(JOSIE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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