WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 110.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.4S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.6S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.5S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.1S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.4S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.6S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 110.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CENTERED OVER THE ASSESSED AND OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 012282Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A RATHER ELONGATED SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THE LLCC, WHICH CAN BE DENOTED BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING
VISIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (50 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AS WELL AS
AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T3.2 (49 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN OVERALL
MODERATELY FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 28-29 DEG CELSIUS. TC 01S HAS BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY,
BLOCKED FROM ADDITIONAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. TC 01S WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DRIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWARD HEADING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
BEFORE ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. TC DAHLIA WILL CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE
STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO A MORE EAST-WEST AXIS, ALLOWING TC 01S
TO SHIFT TO AN EASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE WESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, HIGH
SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 48, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS AROUND TAU
36. AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND SHARPLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 01S, FULLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY
TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO TAKE THE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST
AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS IN LINE WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
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